Water Resources Planning

Willamette Water 2100 (WW2100)

Oregon State University

http://inr.oregonstate.edu/ww2100/

Willamette Water 2100 (WW2100), a large six-year research project funded by the National Science Foundation, used OSU’s “Envision” modeling framework as the backbone for a set of hydrologic, biophysical, economic, and demographic models of the Willamette River Basin in the 21st century. The project’s objective was to anticipate how water scarcity might develop as a result of climate change, increasing population, and economic growth, and to explore how it may vary spatially and how it may be affected by policy alternatives.

Dave Conklin was recruited to WW2100 in its third year to implement seven economic models, and stayed on to take over the integration and operation of the resulting “Willamette Envision” software package, which has diverged from the standard OSU Envision system. Willamette Envision’s hydrographic model simulates streamflows in the Willamette River and its tributaries, including operations of 13 US Army Corps of Engineers’ reservoirs, on a daily timestep. The hydrographic model was developed before Dave joined the project, but he has led a recent recalibration effort.

Demographic and economic models used in WW2100 run on a yearly timestep, and include population growth, land-use change, municipal water use, irrigation, crop choices, and the operation of water rights law. Biophysical models are incorporated to simulate the effects of climate change on forests and the incidence of forest fires.

The Willamette Envision model is being used as the foundation for further modeling efforts focused on urban water use in a second NSF-funded project, which began in 2015 (UWIN, see below). It has been incorporated into a proposal for a third project, responding to NSF’s “INFEWS” call for proposals, focusing on the food-water-energy nexus.

Freshwater has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with OSU that identifies Freshwater as the prime resource and place to go for those interested in the WW2100 model. You can access the MOU by clicking on the following link:WW2100 model MOU

Updates to the WW2100 model, that focus on the economic components of the simulation, have been documented in a new report by Dr. Bill Jaeger and his colleagues at OSU. Click on the following link to access the report: Water, Economics, and Climate Change in the Willamette Basin, Oregon.

An article on how the WW2100 model can help to better understand the future of water and agriculture in Oregon’s largest river, can be found at the following link: WW2100 article.